Industrial Production Increased 1.6 Percent in October; Back to Pre-pandemic Levels

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by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2021 09:22:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 1.6 percent in October after falling 1.3 percent in September; about half of the gain in October reflected a recovery from the effects of Hurricane Ida. Manufacturing output increased 1.2 percent in October; excluding a large gain in the production of motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved up 0.6 percent. The output of utilities rose 1.2 percent, and mining output stepped up 4.1 percent.

At 101.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in October was 5.1 percent above its year-earlier level and at its highest reading since December 2019. In October, capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 1.2 percentage points to 76.4 percent; even so, it was still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2020) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and back to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 76.4% is 3.2% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in October to 100.0. This is slightly above the February 2020 level.

The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations.