Trading Concept
  • Home
  • Trading News
  • Email Whitelisting
  • Privacy Policy
  • Home
  • Trading News
  • Email Whitelisting
  • Privacy Policy
No Result
View All Result
Trading Concept
No Result
View All Result
Home Trading News

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

by
December 7, 2021
in Trading News
0
0
SHARES
1
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data – and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko’s article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) “Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data”

RELATED POSTS

Sam Altman didn’t take any equity in OpenAI, report says

‘It was agony’: Why SVB’s collapse is especially hard as a Black founder, says CEO

Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) – and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010).  I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through September 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the ’90s and early ’00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.   

The swings in the seasonal factors have decreased, and the seasonal factors has been moving back towards more normal levels.
Note that the recent price surge hasn’t distorted the seasonal factors.
ShareTweetPin

Related Posts

Sam Altman didn’t take any equity in OpenAI, report says

by
March 24, 2023
0

Sam Altman, president of Y Combinator, pauses during the New Work Summit in Half Moon Bay, California, U.S., on Monday,...

‘It was agony’: Why SVB’s collapse is especially hard as a Black founder, says CEO

by
March 24, 2023
0

Isa Watson, founder of voice-only social messaging app Squad, was on a plane when she got the news: Silicon Valley...

Europe’s leaders battle banking crisis as market rout hangs over Brussels summit

by
March 24, 2023
0

In this article .BBKADBCSG.N-CH Follow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Deutsche Bank is profitable after...

BofA’s Hartnett sees commercial real estate as the ‘next shoe to drop’

by
March 24, 2023
0

Commercial real estate could be the next danger spot in the wobbly U.S. financial sector, according to Bank of America....

TikTok wants to distance itself from China — but Beijing is getting involved

by
March 24, 2023
0

China and U.S. flags are seen near a TikTok logo in this illustration picture taken July 16, 2020. Florence Lo...

Next Post

Schedule for Week of December 5, 2021

Morgan Stanley gave an 'overweight' rating to these 3 stocks yielding up to 9.8% — lock them in before inflation soars higher

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

email

Get the daily email about stock.

Please Enter Your Email Address:



By opting in you agree to our Privacy Policy. You also agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

MOST VIEWED

  • WHO says Covid vaccine booster programs will prolong pandemic

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Forget Tesla — this auto stock is the one to buy right now, analyst says

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Spin or Split? AT&T Has a Big Decision to Make on Discovery Stake.

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Here’s how Carl Icahn is positioning for a possible recession in America

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Some lawmakers and their families are betting thousands of dollars on crypto

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Home
  • Trading News
  • Email Whitelisting
  • Privacy Policy
All rights reserved by tradingconcept.net
No Result
View All Result
  • Email Whitelisting
  • Home
  • Privacy Policy

All rights reserved by www.tradingconcept.net